普林斯顿年夜学传授:美连续经济增长倚仗于美联储的自力位置

发布:金融界网站

  2018年对付环球经济来说十分不平凡,这是许多人眼中艰难的一年。环球经济局势景气不够,国际局势扑朔迷离,地缘政治局势繁杂、环球去杠杆过程风起云涌、贸易会商彷徨不前…

麻城教育网 http://www.machengedu.cn/

  2019已经到来,许多2018年我们面临的困难并未办理。我们应该如何适应新的一年?如何在扑朔迷离的经济情况中寻找新的增长和偏向?金融界特邀经济学家与您一起探路2019,问道未来!

一折特卖 http://m.1ytm.cn

本文来自武汉新闻网 http://www.wh-edu.cn/

  本期贵宾:普林斯顿年夜学经济学院传授Elizabeth Bogan

本文来自武汉新闻网 http://www.wh-edu.cn/

  金融界:世界主要经济体的泉币政策彷佛正在趋向宽松,美联储主席鲍威尔暗示最近美联储会议将降息。回首汗青,开放降息周期通常意味着金融危机的开始。这次会是这种环境吗?

本文来自武汉新闻网 http://www.wh-edu.cn/

  Elizabeth C. Bogan:我不认为美联储考虑低落联邦基金目标利率意味着金融危机即将到来。相反,美联储正谨慎地试图坚持历久扩张。由于我们现在不存在通货膨胀的问题,美联储会在必要时通过降息刺激经济。

  在曩昔,降息周期通常意味着经济已经走弱,武汉新闻网www.wh-edu.cn,美联储试图通过刺激借贷来抑制经济衰退。反周期泉币政策在西方国家至关重要,因为自由市场会陷入时而过于乐不雅时而过于消极的周期。固然我强调银行依赖其贷款客户包管经济增长,但金融市场将会扩张并且可能发生金融危机,私营部门将会过于消极并囤积资金。为了限制经济衰退,中央银行必须增加资金,以便人们可以在不进一步削减花费和投资支出的环境下持有资金。

  立异海潮和小我鼓励是增长的焦点动力

  金融界:美国经济在特朗普当局期间坚持了强劲的增长势头。您认为美国经济增长的焦点动力是什么?

  Elizabeth C. Bogan:我将美国坚持经济增长归因于立异海潮,而立异海潮又获得了自由社会的勉励。自由社会意味着从一开始就强调公共教育和多元化移民,这使新的思维方法赓续被创造。除此以外,美国银行向任何他们认为可以得到贷款回报的人提供贷款,经济效率推动了经济增长。必要弥补的是,这里的银行业传统主要是向公司而不是州和地方当局提供贷款。同时,私营部门在发告竣长。

  目前的增长主要来自2017年12月的税收变更。降税和让公司收回海外利润鼓励了美国的商业投资,宽松监管也有所赞助(并非转变具体规则,而是使人坚信当局不会宣布新规)。公司和小我在投入新资金时必须考虑未来的政治和经济情况。

  连续经济增长倚仗于美联储自力位置

  金融界:在未来十年,美国能否寄托其目前的焦点增长动力坚持其活着界上的领先位置?

  Elizabeth C. Bogan:未来十年的某个时候将会呈现衰退。然则,只要我们的当局不试图过度引导资本或过度征税,美国经济增长就可能再次发生。

  我担心特朗普总统对泉币政策的一些评论。我们必要美联储坚持自力,继承施展反周期泉币政策的作用,通过扩张性泉币政策来应对经济衰退,并控制增长来防止通胀跨越2%。美国央行必要坚持自力,即在经济衰退期间,它将未了偿的当局债务泉币化,但并不指定哪些公司得到贷款。公司应该自由追求利润(在匆匆进公道和诚笃行为的正常司法范围内),而当局不应该选择谁得到资金。

  美国犯了差错,尽管如此,其民主自由和小我鼓励已经很好地施展了作用。我希望在将来这样正面的作用能够连续,但同时也担心如果部分民主党掌权,增长将受到影响。

  如何鼓励私企、平衡公营私营部门是关注重点

  金融界:目前环球经济增速都有所放缓,为了应对这种环境,列国当局都使用了一系列刺激步伐。中国当局在去产能、去杠杆、拉动需求和经济布局调剂上进行了充分的构造,您认为,应对环球经济增速动力不够的现状,当局层面应如何应对?

  Elizabeth C. Bogan:革新开放鼓励中国企业家创造了令人惊叹的,继续几十年10%的经济增长。目前中国的经济环境可能只是放缓了它成为世界领导者的脚步,但并不会影响中国的成长和进步。我不是中国当局政策的专家,所以并不得当颁发评论,只能从较为小我角度简单谈一谈本身的想法。

  正如我们所了解的,美国现在正给予企业最年夜的减税政策,中国也在2018年的税制革新中也采取了同样的举措。我建议中国方面可多关注私营部门利润、减税成效和平衡国有与私营企业关系的议题。

  以下为访谈全文:

  1. Monetary policy in the world’s major economies seems to be loosening, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at an interest rate decrease at a recent Federal Reserve meeting. Looking back on history, opening the interest rate reduction cycle generally means the beginning of the financial crisis. Would that be the scenario this time?

  I do not view the Fed’s consideration of reducing the Fed Funds Target Rate to signal a coming financial crisis. Rather the Fed is cautiously trying to keep the long expansion going. Since we do not have a problem now with inflation, the Fed can afford to stimulate the economy if needed.

  In the past the interest rate reduction cycle has often meant that the economy had already turned down and the Fed was trying to limit the depth of the recession by stimulating borrowing. Counter-cyclical monetary policy is essential in a capitalistic country, because periodically free markets get too optimistic and then too pessimistic. While I emphasize below the importance of banks deciding on their loan customers for economic growth, it is nevertheless true that financial markets will get over extended and a financial crisis can occur. Then the private sector is too pessimistic and hoards money. To limit the recession, money must be added by the Central Bank so people can hold it without further cutting spending on consumption and investment.

  2. The U. S. economy has maintained a strong growth momentum during the Trump Administration. What do you think is the core driving force of U. S. economic growth?

  The U. S. has had a very long-term trend of good growth. I attribute that to waves of innovation, which in turn were encouraged by a free society with an emphasis from its beginning on public education and with immigration from around the world, so that new ways of thinking were often introduced. Freedom meant that people who made strong economic contributions were rewarded with high income, so incentives to innovate have been strong. In addition, U. S. banks lend to whomever they think will make a return on the loan. The government does not get involved in picking who gets the loans. Economic efficiency drives growth. Also, the tradition of banking here is to lend mostly to companies rather than to state and local governments. The private sector flourishes.

  The current growth is largely from the tax changes of December 2017. Cutting the corporate tax rate and letting companies repatriate overseas profits without heavy taxes encouraged business investment in the U. S. Deregulation also helped (not so much by the specific rules that were changed but by the belief that the Government would not put in new regulations). Companies and individuals have to think about the future political and economic environment when they commit new money.

  In the next decade, will the United States be able to maintain its leading position in the world by relying on its current core growth power?

  Sometime in the next decade there will be a recession. But the reoccurrence of growth in the U. S. is likely so long as our government does not try to direct capital or tax it too heavily (as some Democrats wish to do). It is also important that the U. S. allows individuals with high human capital to immigrate to the U. S., so that innovation remains strong.

  I worry about some of President Trump’s comments on monetary policy. We need the Federal Reserve to remain independent to continue the role of counter-cyclical monetary policy to counter-act recessions with expansionary monetary policy and to tighten in booms to prevent inflation above 2%. The U. S. needs to continue the independent role for the Central Bank that in a recession it monetizes outstanding government debt, but does not direct which firms get loans. The firms should be free to pursue profits (within normal laws promoting fair and honest behaviors). The government should not choose who gets the funds.

  All countries make mistakes and the U. S. is no exception. Nevertheless, its democratic freedoms and private incentives to succeed have served it well and I hope will continue to do so in the future. I do worry if some of the left-wing Democrats gain political control that growth will suffer.

  3. China’s economic growth is slowing down. In order to cope with this situation, the Chinese government has taken a number of measures. Including the removal of capacity and leverage to enhance domestic demand and economic restructuring. At present, are the government’s measures effective?

  As you know, the Deng reforms increased private incentives and inspired Chinese entrepreneurs to create an awesome growth pattern for decades of near 10% growth. Slowing down a bit may just be that growth oPPortunities were stronger catching up than they can be as a world leader.

  Since I am not an expert on Chinese government policy, I am not comfortable commenting on current policies.

200多位台湾年夜学生在昆山开启实习之旅

新华社南京7月6日电(记者 何磊静)5日,齐聚昆山的200多位台湾年夜学生参加暑期实习开班仪式,他们将在这座台资高地度过一个充足的暑假,感想感染年…

北京市房地产协会提出针对年夜学生卒业季租房十项倡议

7月6日,北京市住建委官微表露,为匆匆进卒业季住房租赁市场安稳,保障卒业生租房群体的正当权益,北京市 房地产 中介行业协会向全市房地产经纪机构…

拼多多与中国农业年夜学签署战略协议 将配合培养万名新农

本报讯5月27日,新电商平台拼多多与中国农业年夜学正式杀青深度战略互助,未来5年内,双方将倾斜资源、优势互补,配合培养10000名新农贩子才,携手探…

深圳开设“我的赤色片子课堂”

深圳开设“我的赤色片子课堂” 深圳特区报讯(记者 刘莎莎)本年是中华人民共和国成立70周年。7月11日起,由深圳市片子刊行放映有限公司主办的全新公…

夜游博物馆艺术全时空

夜游博物馆艺术全时空 郭新洋 摄 刘雨桐 七月开始,上海多处博物馆、艺术馆开展了“夜游博物馆”的运动,意在通过延迟闭关光阴,给“上班族”们更多…

浙江宁波发明两座龙窑 出土年夜批越窑青瓷和窑具

中新网宁波7月10日电(记者 林波)7月10日,浙江省宁波市文物考古研究所对外宣布消息称,该所联合吉林年夜学对奉化陈君庙山窑址群进行了抢救性考古挖掘…

点击阅读更多财经新闻